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Getlink · GET · Euronext Paris

Getlink owns the Channel Tunnel under a French-British concession running to 2086, earning the bulk of its profit from regulated rail tolls and self-operated truck and passenger shuttles, with a 1 GW power interconnector running through the Tunnel as a high-margin bolt-on.

$22.11
Price
$12.0B
Market cap
$1.86B
Revenue (FY25)
53.9%
EBITDA margin
Restructured and re-listed in 2007 after the original Eurotunnel concession's bankruptcy; ranged ~$9–$19 through the 2010s, peaked ~$19.90 in Aug 2022 on the ElecLink launch into the energy crisis, now $22.11. Figures converted from EUR at historical FX rates.
2 · The tension

16.7x EV/EBITDA versus AENA 9.6x — the premium pays for duration and a takeover the holders ruled out.

  • What it pays for. Concession to 2086 with $480M of rail tolls formula-bound to UK/FR inflation minus 1.1% through 2052 — the longest contracted cash-flow tail in listed European infrastructure. AENA's regulator resets every five years; APRR motorways expire 2031–36.
  • What it can't earn. ROCE 8.2% on 3.95x net debt vs AENA 17.8% on 1.18x. The duration argument has to defer to a path-occupancy lift from 45.6% toward 60% — a 2030+ call option that needs rolling-stock orders no operator has placed.
  • What just got ruled out. Eiffage 29.4% + Mundys 25% = 54% capital, 59% votes; both publicly disclaim a bid. The AMF 30% trigger needs an active acquirer. The optionality the multiple priced has crystallised the wrong way.
Strip the takeout, the multiple defaults toward AENA 9.6x. Keep it, the next AMF Article 19 filing decides everything.
3 · The 54% bloc

Two strategic shareholders set the price — the AMF decides whether anyone else gets to.

  • The bloc. Eiffage 29.40% capital, Mundys 25.00% after exercising tranche-2 in April 2026 post UK NSI Act clearance. Combined 54.4% of capital and 59.4% of votes via the double-voting mechanic. Four board seats between them. Both publicly disclaim a bid.
  • The private floor. Both holders accumulated their incremental tranches at $20.34–$20.69 across 2025–26 — explicit price discovery 7–8% below today's $22.11. Mundys (Edizione/Blackstone, ex-Atlantia) consolidated Aeroporti di Roma, Telepass and Abertis without ever launching a tender.
  • The open question. If the AMF rules Eiffage and Mundys are acting in concert, French law forces a mandatory tender on the combined bloc at 30%. No date set. Until it fires, this is settled control without a takeout multiple — the single biggest re-rating lever in the equity sits with a regulator's discretion.
4 · Variant — the dividend math

The $0.93 dividend covers — once you strip $199M of non-cash charges out of net income.

  • The bear arithmetic. $507M payout ÷ $369M FY25 net income = 137% — uncovered, cuttable on the first ElecLink wobble. Sell-side anchored here; PT mean $22.45 inline with spot prices the bear case.
  • What net income hides. $129M of non-cash ElecLink profit-share provision charge — zero dollars of cash outflow since 2018, $603M paper liability still unsettled with regulators. Plus $71M of inflation indexation accreting onto debt principal, not paid in cash. Both real economic charges. Neither funds the dividend.
  • The cash math. Adjusted cash net income ≈ $569M; $507M payout = 89% covered. Pre-debt-service FCF ran $732M; CFO/NI 2.83x. The 23 July H1 cash flow is the test — a profit-share cash payment line breaks the variant; absence corroborates it.
Bear's primary trigger is an accounting artefact, not a cash constraint.
5 · Money picture

FY25 reads more like an infrastructure annuity than a transport stock — and FY26 has to prove it sustains.

$1.00B
FY25 EBITDA beat $970M–$1.00B guide
53.9%
EBITDA margin DFDS ferry: 10.2%
3.95x
Net debt / EBITDA first sub-4x post-COVID
$958M–$1.00B
FY26 guide dividend credibility test

Eurotunnel prints 78% of group EBITDA at 56% segment margins on a near-fixed cost base — the next truck, passenger or rail toll lands at 60–80% incremental EBITDA flow-through. ElecLink swung group revenue $117M in twelve months on energy-spread normalisation, but 89% of 2026 is pre-sold at $340M against the FY25 $263M print, so the volatile line has unusual visibility into next year. The $958M–$1.00B band is what defends the $0.93 dividend into FY27; a print at $1.00B+ holds the duration premium, sub-$958M activates a payout review.

6 · Bull & Bear

Lean watchlist — duration is real; what the multiple was pricing has mostly come off.

  • For. $480M of rail tolls indexed to UK/FR inflation minus 1.1% through 2052 — no listed European concession peer carries an equivalent 27-year formula on a single asset. 2086 concession tail.
  • For. Path occupancy at 45.6% leaves a ~2x revenue call option inside the asset; ETCS upgrade lifts design throughput from 20 to 24 paths/hr. Virgin holds Temple Mills depot since Oct 2025; Trenitalia, Evolyn, Gemini queued. Every operator pays the same toll.
  • Against. ROCE 8.2% on 3.95x leverage cannot earn AENA's 9.6x, let alone 16.7x. The capital-efficiency gap is structural; the path-occupancy fix is four years out with no fleet orders placed.
  • Against. $0.93 dividend prints above GAAP net income; FY26 EBITDA midpoint $982M sits below FY25's $1.00B; ElecLink suffered two cable faults in twelve months. The strategic shareholders publicly ruled out the bid the multiple was already pricing.
Lean watchlist. Move long on Mundys above 28% via AMF Article 19, or path occupancy above 50% before 2028. Move short on two consecutive quarters with no Article 19 filing and FY26 tracking sub-$958M.

Watchlist to re-rate: AMF Article 19 disclosures on Mundys creep; H1 2026 cash flow on 23 July 2026 — profit-share cash line and Railway Network growth above +7%; UK business-rates tribunal ruling expected Q3 2026.